Kyrgyz president should name opposition leader as successor, paper says
Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev should choose his successor now

Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev should choose his successor now, and should opt for the most suitable person for the job, the leader of the main opposition Ar-Namys Party, Feliks Kulov, an article in the Kyrgyz newspaper `Res Publica' said on 7th March. The article, written by an ex-KGB officer, questions Akayev's ability to deal with what it described as "chronic chaos" in the country's economy and corruption. In the face of future regional upheaval, the country needs a "tough and resolute" leader such as Kulov. The forthcoming presidential elections in Russia may influence the outcome of the Kyrgyz presidential elections in October 2000, since a win by a communist candidate would strengthen the hand of the communists in Kyrgyzstan . The following are excerpts from the article:

By Erkebek Abdullayev, lieutenant-colonel of the foreign intelligence service of the KGB of the USSR

Election battles in Kyrgyzstan are in full swing. The powers that be are resorting to the most dirty tricks and methods in order to discredit their political opponents. [The leader of the main opposition party] Feliks Kulov, who has announced his intention to run for president, is particularly taking a pounding. The court pen-pushers are accusing him of a multitude of sins: of the killing of LUKoil- Kyrgyzstan managing director] tycoon Yusup Kolbayev and Security Minister Anarbek Bakayev; of taking millions in bribes; of getting shady revenues from the alcoholic spirit and oil businesses; of inability to speak his native language; of being of Kalmyk origin and even of inciting officers of the Kalkan shield anti-terrorist centre to a military coup, etc.

It is not so very serious when journalists write about this. Because it is their profession. But when ostensibly competent folk (for instance, the former chief of the [Kyrgyz SSR] KGB, Lt-Gen Dzhumabek Asankulov,) put pen to paper then one cannot help but think that either Kulov really got their backs up or the authorities have finally decided to bring in the heavy weapons.

I worked with Kulov in 1991-1993, when he was deputy minister of internal affairs of Kyrgyzstan . I often came here from Moscow at his invitation to train special-purpose units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, security agencies and the president's bodyguards. Therefore, I can judge Kulov's personal and business qualities in a fairly objective and unbiased way.

Dzhumabek Asankulovich Asankulov is a prominent personality in post-Soviet space. He managed to step on the same rake twice: On the first occasion, Turdakun Usubaliyev Kyrgyz leader in the Soviet era removed him from the post of chairman of the Kyrgyz SSR KGB. Soviet leader Yuriy Vladimirovich Andropov appointed Asankulov head of a special facility near Moscow where security officers were training black personnel for the African continent. On the second occasion Kyrgyz President]Askar Akayev dismissed him. In January 1991 the Kyrgyz SSR KGB chairman Asankulov failed to understand the real purpose of a 10-day visit to Kyrgyzstan by two Moscow security service officers. They were in fact looking into the possiblity of transferring some archive material and money to Kyrgyzstan . And this was six months before the State Committee for the State of Emergency which seized power in Moscow on 19th August 1991 but collapsed three days later/ If that had happened then the republic would have turned into the "Switzerland of the East" in actual fact, not just in words.

After August 1991 Asankulov vegetated without a job and pension for a long time under the watchful eye of the State Committee for National Security. One wonders whether the old man has forgotten how his good name was restored and he returned to the intelligence bodies. Does he remember the content of the discussions at our three informal meetings in the autumn of 1992? The thing is that destructive forces could have "covertly" used the undeservedly offended KGB general against the president. There was a need to relieve his stress, to calm him down and to settle him in a job so that he would not step on the rake for a third time (in security officers' jargon it is called a preventive measure). In a fit of outspokenness Dzhumabek Asankulovich revealed many things, for instance how he and Kyrgyz writer Chingiz Aytmatov brought Akayev to power, how he received a scolding from the then KGB chairman Kryuchkov because Chingiz Torekulovich Aytmatov was the first to inform Mikhail Gorbachev about this. Since then much water has flowed under the bridge. Did Asankulov really forgive Akayev for all the things of the past and become his staunch supporter? Let us look into this.

Akayev has been losing his image fast in recent years, and there is something about him that reminds me of Gorbachev, who preferred foreign trips to resolving pressing problems at home. In addition, Akayev is constantly being set up by his close associates because of their stupidity or they do it knowingly. Kulov is scoring points despite all the mud that is being slung at him. Moreover, he does not limit himself to visits within the republic and has made a few successful tours of foreign countries and succeeded in drawing support from a number of prominent politicians and financial magnates. That is, he has daringly encroached on Akayev's "allodium". Kulov's easy gesture of respect to [Uzbek President] Islam Karimov looks as if it has also achieved its intended effect. According to the latest information, Akayev's victory in the previous presidential elections was due largely to Kyrgyzstan 's ethnic. Uzbek electorate carrying out Karimov's secret instructions. Who will our Uzbeks vote for now?

But Kulov should be under no delusions in this regard. Although Karimov cannot stand Akayev he still wants to see a gentle and compliant person lead Kyrgyzstan . Feliks, however, is a difficult man. And so, Karimov regards him as dangerous and does not want him to be a potential successor to Kyrgyzstan 's present head of state.

Communists

In the forthcoming presidential elections, the Communists have real chances of success because Askar Akayev may have lost weight as a politician by then. Only Feliks Kulov will get in the Communists' way. Much now depends on the results of the 26th March presidential elections in Russia. If Russian Communist Party leader Gennadiy Zyuganov wins then the leader the Party of Communists of Kyrgyzstan Absamat Masaliyev may come to power in Kyrgyzstan . If acting Russian President Vladimir Putin wins then Feliks Kulov's chances will increase sharply. Therefore, there is a suspicion that General Asankulov is "attacking" Kulov not because of his personal antipathy or mercenary motives but because he is fulfilling a party order.

If the Communists are defeated in the elections then in order to continue their political struggle they can count only on financial assistance from the fraternal party of the neighbouring great power. There is nothing wrong in this. The CPSU used to help foreign parties.

Kyrgyzstan 's other political parties do not have good chances of victory in the forthcoming race for president. Because few people know that "presidents are not elected but appointed". Askar Akayev was no exception to these rules, either. Look, those presidents who were accidentally brought to power on the waves of "perestroyka" (Azerbaijan, Georgia and Tajikistan) did not stay on the political scene for long.

Askar Akayevich Akayev remains a naive idealist who believes fairy tales about democracy and the prophesies of Nostradamus. Given his age, the man is incorrigible. Europeans played a major role in the formation of his philosophy of life, first in academic and then in international political circles. In Kyrgyzstan , if one looks in on the offices in the "White House", bank offices or the editorial offices of newspapers, radio and television, one may see the most interesting picture: for every five lazy Kyrgyz hanging around, there is one efficient European with a characteristic profile and with a Russian or Ukrainian surname who does the bulk of the work. Even the republic's president himself enlists the help of a "cunning professor from Germany" who comes in difficult situations and gives some sensible advice. But Europe's liking for democracy is not forever and its love for Kyrgyzstan is not platonic at all, but is based on material things such as Kumtor, Kyrgyz-Canadian gold mining company, Ak-Tuz (radioactive elements extraction) and the Kant cement and corrugated asbestos boards plant. Therefore, from now on they will most likely show preference for Kulov, who is more resolute and can be a guarantor of their capital investment in the republic, rather than Akayev, who is unable to deal with the chronic chaos in the economy and in the financial system, with total corruption, or with the increasing threat of social explosion and the external military threat from Islamic extremists.

Whilst civil war was raging in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan was not just sitting with its hands in its lap but was feverishly strengthening its borders and armed forces. And naturally, it added fuel to the Tajik fire from time to time. Last year, the Tajiks finally reached a reconciliation and took the historic decision to stop the pointless civil strife and to unite in order to start the renaissance of their homeland. Jumaboy Namangoniy's Uzbek detachments, which fought alongside the Tajik opposition, found that their services were no longer needed in Tajikistan. But they were told that they could continue the "jihad" in their own country, Uzbekistan. This is exactly what they have been trying to do. The Tajiks, of course, will help Namangoniy, if only to take revenge on the Uzbeks. Therefore, our southern borders are unlikely to be calm this year. But this would not be the most terrible thing. A few years on, Tajikistan, becoming strong after uniting with some of the northern provinces of Afghanistan and with powerful support from Iran, may demand the return of the "originally Tajik" territories and the towns of Samarkand and Bukhara.

This means that we are on the brink of a big regional war, into which the Kyrgyz south will inevitably be dragged. Is anybody still not quite clear about this? In this context, a legitimate question arises: can the present Kyrgyz president govern the country at war? The answer is obvious: no, he cannot. Therefore, as military tension increases, one would want to see a tough general in the position of supreme commander, instead of an irresolute academician. The fact that Kulov has experience of working in administrative posts in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of National Security only strengthens his position.

There are many clear minds in Kyrgyzstan who are concerned about state security. For instance, Aytmatov has come up with the idea of forming a confederation of Central Asian states (this idea was ascribed to Kulov), which created a sensation in the press and television. Such a union has more positive features than negative. Most importantly, in that case it would be possible to avert war in the region. But, unfortunately, neither the Tajiks nor the Uzbeks are prepared to take this kind of step. Following the change of political leadership in Russia, Askar Akayev's idea of Kyrgyzstan joining the Belarus-Russia union sounds more realistic. But if Kazakhstan does not join this union then we will have difficulty establishing common transport links.

I have met and talked to many state officials in Kyrgyzstan . The overwhelming majority of them support Kulov but have to hide their liking for him because they fear the vengeance of the president's associates. They said: "You're OK, you are an independent journalist and may write about anything. We have children." If any of my relatives also get "attacked" I would gladly rip off the heads of some rascals. Those who have been slinging mud at Kulov in public are trying to justify their actions by saying: "If I do not do this I will be dismissed from my job. But Kulov is a forgiving man. If all of a sudden he comes to power he will not take reprisals." I call them jackals.

I had to deal with the extremist opposition back in 1992 in the south of the republic. There I managed to calm them down: "OK, so Akayev does not suit you. But he was lawfully elected! By using force against him you will precipitate bloody civil strife. Then any other contender will have the moral right to use force against your protege as well. Let us have respect for our young state of the Kyrgyz and act within the law."

Kyrgyzstan is a small state in which people know one another very well or are related to one another. Everything secret will come out sooner or later. The use of prohibited methods and "dirty" technologies in the elections may provoke a revolt. Revolt means bloodshed. And in the East, the blood of innocent victims always calls for revenge. Chaos will then start. Who will benefit from it?

And so, here is an urgent request: observe law and order in the elections and also exercise restraint and common sense. Because this is in the interests of all of us.

P. S. Akayev could follow Yeltsin's example and choose a successor before it is too late. And perhaps, a better candidate for this role than Kulov cannot be found. This is really a paradox.